:Product: 20050716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 790
(S10W80) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at 16/0338Z.  It was
also the source for a very long duration C7 flare that occurred
between 15/2010Z and 16/0005Z.  A Type II radio sweep occurred in
association with a C2 flare that occurred at 16/0714Z from Region
790, although LASCO imagery showed little associated CME activity. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 790 remains capable of producing an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An active period occurred at the Boulder magnetometer between
16/0600 and 0900Z.  A weak transient signature was observed at the
ACE spacecraft near 16/0100Z with no significant geomagnetic effects
resulting.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on
14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z, remains
in-progress.  The proton flux has been on a gradual decrease and was
near 11 pfu at the end of the period.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Isolated minor storm
conditions may be possible with the onset of the anticipated
transient from the CME activity that occurred on 14 July.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the
period on 17 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    15/05/01
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     99/15/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 076
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  010/012-005/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01